Baseball is back in the Upper Midwest as the American Association completed their first weekend of the 2026 regular season. Everyone has played three games, while Fargo-Moorhead and Cleburne each have four tilts under their belt.

One weekend series against one team is laughably early to draw meaningful conclusions in a 100-game series, sports fans are a famously calm, patient, and rational bunch (okay, now think of the opposite; that’s the reality), so why not pretend that either everything is perfect or the sky is falling?

Let’s look at some knee-jerk (over)reactions from the weekend:

Milwaukee runs the East!

The Milwaukee Milkmen (who I picked to finish last in the East) started their season in impressive fashion, stymying the Winnipeg Goldeyes by allowing just two runs in each of the three games, while finishing the series with a 12-2 thumping on Sunday.

Milwaukee was sharp on both sides of the ball, holding the Goldeyes to just six runs, a .200 team batting average, and no home runs. Furthermore, the Milkmen hit .296 with a .936 OPS and five roundtrippers. Griffin Doersching didn’t play at all in 2025, but returned with a vengeance, going 6-for-14 with three doubles, two homers, and eight RBI (good for a 1.500 OPS), doing more by himself than Winnipeg’s entire offense.

The schedule stays favorable next week: three vs. Gary SouthShore, then a trip to Winnipeg for three games. However, the two weeks after that we should learn a lot about Milwaukee: four games at Sioux City and three more at Lake Country finishes a 10-game first trip, then they welcome Chicago and Fargo-Moorhead for three apiece. Don’t be surprised if things get hairy.

Fargo-Moorhead is the AA’s top offense!

The Fargo-Moorhead RedHawks absolutely bludgeoned the Cleburne Railroaders this weekend, slashing .340/.416/.593 as a team with 42 runs and nine home runs over the first four games (all wins), while scoring at least a dozen runs each of the last three nights.

Production is coming all over the place, between an 11-for-18 (.611) start from Jesus Lujano, who also has four doubles and seven RBI, 10 hits and five RBI from Juan Fernandez, Dillon Thomas scoring eight times, and Jose Sermo destroying baseballs (more on that in a minute). When you’re scoring that much, you need to have your whole lineup clicking and that’s been the case.

However, it’s important to note that Cleburne ran out a pitching staff that ran neck-and-neck with Lincoln for worst in the league last year. Nearly that whole staff is cleared out, but very few of the incoming arms are ones that wow you and Pete Incaviglia also has a trend of running out poor staffs, so this is nothing new from his teams. The RedHawks still have three more in Texas before coming home to face two very good pitching staffs in Kane County and Lake Country. Those runs could dry up pretty fast next weekend.

Jose Sermo will hit 30 home runs!

The 35-year-old veteran has homered four times in the last three nights, driving in nine runs as he’s turned back the clock nicely to start the season. Well, turning the clock all the way back to…the second half last year, when he hit .286 and crushed 15 homers in just 55 games with Fargo-Moorhead after Cleburne cut him following a very slow start. Looks like he’s sufficiently taking it out on his former team.

Sermo’s approached 30 twice, ripping 29 in 2021 for Sioux City and a league-leading 28 in 2023 for Cleburne. He also hit 22 twice: in 2018 for the X’s and again in ’24 for Milwaukee. He’s left the yard seemingly about as often as he’s changed teams (a lot), though I think Fargo-Moorhead has no intention of letting him go anywhere.

However, reaching 30 homers will be extremely tough—especially at 35 years old. Keon Barnum (2019), Adam Walker (2021) and Kyle Martin (2021) are the only AA sluggers to reach that mark, and two of them did it in a crazy year when teams were losing players to MLB teams left and right and nobody had remotely enough pitching. And again, F-M’s schedule will get a lot tougher quickly.

Kansas City can’t hit!

The Kansas City Monarchs are an annual contender and are regularly built around a strong offense, especially with a home ballpark that plays pretty cozy outside the alleys. However, they hit just .208 and were held to just 10 runs in a series loss to Kane County. The team also has drawn just seven walks.

Outside of Alvaro Gonzalez’s 3-for-6 start, no one is hitting over .300, in the small sample size and four hitters with at least seven at-bats are hitting below .200. Even their one win in the series was scraping out a 3-2 victory. Any way you shake it, things haven’t been very good at the plate.

The two-time defending champion Kane County Cougars on the road is a tough season-opening matchup for the Monarchs, especially when they had to see Pitcher of the Year candidate Konnor Ash on Opening Night. They will return home this week, playing Chicago and Lake Country at Legends Field. The Dogs could provide a few opportunities for some guys to get into gear, though the schedule is tricky for a while, outside of one trip to Lincoln next week.

Lincoln’s pitching staff isn’t that bad!

In the standings, the Lincoln Saltdogs’ 0-3 start isn’t good, as they suffered a sweep at the hands of the Sioux Falls Canaries, at home no less. However, the series was deceiving, as all three games were one-run victories for the Birds, including an extra-innings loss on Opening Night.

While the offense is the culprit for those losses (.194 average, .576 OPS, 10 runs scored in three games), the pitching has stepped up accordingly, posting a 3.67 ERA and striking out over a batter per inning. Greg Loukinen and Trey Jones both turned in strong starts while Tyler Stasiowski has been absolutely nasty, with seven punchouts in just 3.0 innings in relief.

This one could certainly be a valid reaction. I didn’t like much of anything on Lincoln’s roster to start the year and the offense is validating what I said about them. There are a lot of guys with questionable track records on staff, but some people know how to find another way to get results. After last year, just getting the Saltdogs staff to respectable would be a start. Their next 16 games are brutal, though: a seven-game home-and-home (four home, three away) with Sioux City, then three apiece with Kansas City, Kane County, and Lake Country. Let’s see what those offenses do against them.

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