At the end of the the last two seasons, the Kane County Cougars out of the American Association East Division lifted the Miles Wolff Cup. Make no mistake, though, despite that result, since the AA moved to East and West Divisions for the 2022 season, the West has regularly established itself as the clearly better division.

That was no more evident than last year, when the West had all four playoff teams win at least 55 games, with Sioux City leading the way with a sparkling 64-36 record. The East, meanwhile, had Lake Country win the division at 55-45, Chicago in second at a mediocre 50-49 record, and no one else over .500, capped off with Milwaukee becoming the AA’s worst-ever playoff team at 45-55.

Furthermore, all six West teams (even 58-loss Winnipeg and Lincoln squads) had wining records against the East and the West went 133-94 (a .586 winning percentage) against the other division. The difference between the two sides had never been so wide.

But not this year.

A race for second…and the bottom

WEST STANDINGS	W	L	GB
Kansas City	22	16	—
Sioux Falls	19	21	4.0
Sioux City	19	21	4.0
Fargo-Moorhead	18	21	4.5
Winnipeg	18	22	5.0
Lincoln	18	22	5.0

Roughly 40% of the way through the season, it’s evident that Kansas City is the best team in the West, though even then the Monarchs have been a little all over the place. Early in the year, their pitching staff was dragging an offense that was struggling mightily. Then the offense perked up (two eight-home run games will help) while the pitching backslid somewhat.

After KC, it is a big swamp of mediocrity that got more and more crowded over the weekend. Despite a run-differential of -50 that’s third-worst in the league, Sioux Falls was still over .500…until losing their last five games last week, capped off by blowing a five-run lead in an 11-10 loss to Kane County. Meanwhile, Sioux City won a series over the Monarchs, Winnipeg took two of three against Fargo-Moorhead, then Lincoln shot right back into the race by sweeping four games against a reeling Chicago squad.

The end result? Five teams below .500, but all five are separated by just 1.5 games. It’s also worth mentioning that after waxing the East last year, the West is just 47-55 (.461) against the other division this season, with only Sioux Falls (9-8) above .500 in inter-divisional play.

Who is poised to rise above the pack?

WEST STANDINGS	Actual W/L	Run Differential	Expected W/L	Wins vs. Expected
Kansas City	22-16	+64	25-13	-3
Sioux Falls	19-21	-50	16-24	+3
Sioux City	19-21	+2	20-20	-1
Fargo-Moorhead	18-21	-18	18-21	0
Winnipeg	18-22	-15	19-21	-1
Lincoln	18-22	-37	17-23	+1

The underlying numbers seem to agree that Kansas City is the clear top dog, as they boast a +64 run differential that’s second-best in the AA and suggests the Monarchs have actually underperformed their numbers by three wins.

Meanwhile, the numbers don’t suggest any of the rest are that good. Not surprisingly, run differential agrees that Sioux Falls has overperformed, while only Sioux City (barely) has a positive run differential after Kansas City.

With that said, the Explorers seem like they’re the most poised to start rising above the soup around them. Yes, they’ve only underperformed by one win, but there’s a few other factors working in their favor. An obvious one is their 2-8 record in one-run game. If that was even .500, The X’s are 22-18 and right on Kansas City’s heels.

Another factor is that Sioux City seems to have the roster they want, at least on the offensive side. The catalyst to last year’s breakout was an aggressive offense that posted mostly middling numbers…but ran wild on the basepaths (a league record 275 steals) and scored the third-most runs in the league. This year, the X’s are on pace for 250 steals and are fifth in runs. The key difference between this year and last, though, is that Sioux City allowed the second-fewest runs in the league in 2025, while they’re back in the middle of the pack so far. But I like their chances more than others.

Looking at the rest

At this stage, I have Kansas City and Sioux City as my two most likely teams to finish 1-2. As for the other four teams, this is where the rest of the group stands and what they may be looking at going forward:

Fargo-Moorhead RedHawks

The RedHawks have been arguably the biggest disappointment in the league this season. Pitching attrition hasn’t helped, as Jake Dykhoff and Garrett Alexander were both signed away in the season’s first week. Nonetheless, that doesn’t solely explain the league’s top pitching staff last year (3.65 ERA) crashing to a ghastly 6.25 mark that’s second-worst in the loop.

The offense has been very good, scoring the second-most runs in the AA, but they’ve only been able to do so much to outhit their pitching. Simply put, this isn’t the Pioneer League; you won’t do much in this league with a team ERA north of 6, period.

Fargo-Moorhead did run off a 10-4 stretch recently, but followed that up by losing three of their last four games. Things do seem to be improving in June, but they still have to make considerable strides on the mound to be a serious contender.

Lincoln Saltdogs

At the start of the season, Lincoln looked much like what I expected them to be: the league’s worst team. However, the Saltdogs just dropped 31 runs on the rapidly-sinking Chicago Dogs (who are now the worst team in the league) in a four-game sweep to cap off a five-game winning streak that has them firmly back in playoff contention. Overall, the Saltdogs are 13-8 since June 5, bouncing back nicely from a 5-13 start.

Now, Lincoln is still ninth in ERA (5.93) and in the bottom half in runs scored as well, so there’s still clear flaws on this roster. But they’ve benefited from shrewd midseason pickups in Jake Hjelle and Connor Bagnieski that have helped their offense take off, which has fueled the stronger June.

However, their profile is still pretty similar is a less extreme version of Fargo-Moorhead: a slightly better pitching staff that the offense is just trying to out-hit, but the offense is a little worse, so they probably won’t more often than they do. With that said, this team is in MUCH better shape than I expected it to be at this juncture, so I’ll rule nothing out.

Sioux Falls Canaries

As mentioned earlier, the Birds have lost five straight, capped off by a late collapse yesterday. That 11-10 defeat to Kane County encapsulates Sioux Falls’ season: an offense that has its moments, but a pitching staff that is in complete and utter disarray.

The Canaries are last in ERA (6.84) by over half a run and only two of their 16 pitchers this season have an ERA under 5. Even expected ace Thomas Dorminy has been a disaster (7.25 ERA and moved to the bullpen). There’s nowhere for this staff to hide. It’s been pretty much ALL bad.

Despite losing two of the league’s top bats from last year (Jordan Barth and Calvin Estrada), the Birds still are third in runs scored, but also haven’t had Jabari Henry for nearly a month due to injury and aren’t nearly as deep as they were in 2025 even at full strength.

Given the numbers, they’ve done better than you’d think, but the fact of the matter is Sioux Falls’ early results feel like a classic house of cards that I could see collapsing into a full-blown spiral out of contention. With their current slide, it may have already started.

Winnipeg Goldeyes

The last three teams I looked at generally follow the “decent-to-good offense, bad-to-terrible pitching” blueprint, but Winnipeg has more of a so-called “normal” profile. Their pitching isn’t good (5.67 ERA) but both their team ERA (eighth) and runs scored (sixth) are more balanced and closer to the middle of the pack rather than either extreme.

Winnipeg is coming off a series win over Fargo-Moorhead and is 6-4 in their last ten games. The offense is significantly better than last year with Noah Marcelo breaking out, Adam Hall being excellent and significant improvement from Ray-Patrick Didder driving the boost.

The pitching, though, has been a major work in progress, especially in the rotation. Landen Bourassa going to Mexico earlier this month did not help matters either. They do possess a strong back end of the bullpen (Derrick Cherry and Eli Saul) when they are able to hand off late leads, though, and it does feel like they’re starting to piece together a rotation a little bit better.

I doubt the Goldeyes are going to go on a run and contend for the division crown, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they start to push upwards a bit from the bottom. I had them pegged to finish fourth this year and I think that’s about where they’ll end up.

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