As Yogi Berra once described shadow-shrouded left field at old Yankee Stadium, it gets late early out there. That same phrase can also be used to describe the American Association season, where Opening Day doesn’t feel all that long ago, but is now more than three months in the rearview mirror.

Three weeks from tomorrow, the playoffs will start and things are getting very real, very fast. A lot is still on the line, from both division crowns still very much at stake, plus the entire West Division is absolutely alive in the playoff race. Meanwhile, the East probably (but maybe not) solidified their four playoff teams as Gary SouthShore failed to gain any ground on Cleburne over a weeklong trip to Texas.

There’s a lot to play for, but it’s not going to be a fair shake for everyone going forward. Some teams will have a ruinous stretch to the finish, while others get an easier ride. Today we’ll look at all 12 final stretches and rank them.

Some housekeeping: when opponents’ winning percentage is calculated, how many games against each team is factored in. So Gary SouthShore gets counted as ten matchups with a .333 team (Chicago), not just three series. Home/road and head-to-head splits are not considered either, because math is hard.

Anyways, on we go!

Easiest: Gary SouthShore RailCats

Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .421

Remaining Games: 3 vs. Chicago, 3 @ Chicago, 3 vs. Sioux City, 3 vs. Sioux Falls, 3 vs. Lake Country, 4 @ Chicago

While the RailCats wasted a golden opportunity to get back into the playoff race last week in Cleburne, they still have a pretty soft landing to try to eat up a 5.5-game deficit behind the Railroaders. They play 10 of their final 19 games against Chicago while three-game home series with Sioux Falls and Lake Country are their only series with current playoff teams. Additionally, they have 12 home games left, second-most in the league.

Second-Easiest: Chicago Dogs

Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .446

Remaining Games: 3 @ Gary SouthShore, 3 vs. Gary SouthShore, 6 @ Cleburne, 3 vs. Kane County, 4 vs. Gary SouthShore

Well, Chicago has 10 of their final 19 games against Gary SouthShore, so not too surprising that they two easiest schedule below to the two worst teams in the league who also play each other a lot. In between is a week in Texas and three with Kane County. The Dogs will probably be eliminated some time this week, so a playoff push isn’t in the cards, but this soft stretch and a recent 6-2 stretch should keep them out of 70-loss territory.

Third-Easiest: Cleburne Railroaders

Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .485

Remaining Games: 3 @ Lake Country, 3 @ Milwaukee, 6 vs. Chicago, 3 @ Sioux Falls, 4 @ Kane County

This week isn’t a kind one, with a trip to the top two teams in the East, but they get lowly Chicago in their final homestand of the year after that, which really weighs this schedule down (up?). The last road trip isn’t exactly a picnic either. This schedule is probably a few spots down in terms of actual difficulty, especially with 13 of 19 on the road, where the Railroaders are just 15-22.

#4: Sioux Falls Canaries

Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .494

Remaining Games: 3 vs. Winnipeg, 3 vs. Kansas City, 3 @ Fargo-Moorhead, 3 @ Gary SouthShore, 3 vs. Cleburne, 4 vs. Lincoln

The only West team whose opponents have a winning percentage below .500, the Canaries have a nice final stretch at Gary followed by a final week at the Birdcage with Cleburne and Lincoln. Now, the nine games with Winnipeg, Kansas City, and Fargo-Moorhead ahead of that will be tough, but two of those three series are at home, as the Birds have a league-high 13 home games left. That bodes well for a Sioux Falls team trying to fend off Sioux City, as they are 22-15 at home.

#5: Milwaukee Milkmen

Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .497

Remaining Games: 3 @ Kane County, 3 vs Cleburne, 4 vs. Lincoln, 3 @ Fargo-Moorhead, 3 @ Lincoln, 4 vs. Fargo-Moorhead

The Milkmen will play 11 of their final 20 games at home, but they’ve played well everywhere, going 23-16 at Franklin Field, but a league-best 24-17 on the road as well. What’s interesting is that their final 14 games are against West Division teams: 7 with a plucky Lincoln squad and 7 against Fargo-Moorhead’s high-powered offense. Interestingly, those are their only matchups with the Saltdogs this year, while the Milkmen’s only other series with the RedHawks was way back in early June. It’ll be an interesting finish as they fight for a division crown.

#6: Lake Country DockHounds

Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .502

Remaining Games: 3 vs. Cleburne, 4 @ Kane County, 3 vs. Kane County, 3 @ Winnipeg, 3 @ Gary SouthShore, 4 vs. Sioux City

It’s an interesting mix for the DockHounds, who have a trip to Gary and a home series with Cleburne, but also a tricky week home-and-home with Kane County and a trip to Winnipeg on tap. Not to mention finishing with four games at home against a Sioux City team currently on the outside looking in, but is also a team about as fun to play as a root canal and could be desperate in the final weekend. They have a manageable slate to catch Milwaukee, but it certainly won’t be easy.

#7: Kane County Cougars

Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .503

Remaining Games: 3 vs. Milwaukee, 4 vs. Lake Country, 3 @ Lake Country, 4 @ Sioux City, 3 @ Chicago, 4 vs. Cleburne

These next ten games will not be fun for the Cougars, but there are two silver linings: 7 of the 10 are at home and if they’re going to catch Milwaukee and/or Lake Country, the best way to do so is to beat them head-to-head. Now’s that chance. Things lighten up considerably after that. While the four road games (including a doubleheader) with the X’s won’t be fun, finishing with Chicago, then home with Cleburne is a nice final week.

#8: Fargo-Moorhead RedHawks

Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .506

Remaining Games: 3 @ Sioux City, 3 @ Lincoln, 3 vs. Sioux Falls, 3 vs. Milwaukee, 3 vs. Winnipeg (plus suspension), 4 @ Milwaukee

A deceptively tough finish for the RedHawks, as their two easiest series are still on the road against hard-charging Sioux City and Lincoln clubs trying to break into the playoff field. Their last 13 games are against current playoff teams, including seven with Milwaukee, but nine of those games are at Newman Outdoor Field, where the RedHawks are 24-17 this year. Their playoff footing is right now (plus Sioux Falls is behind them), but they have the bad combination of series with all three teams chasing them, plus a full week of games against the league’s top team, which could be problematic. Worth noting: they’ll pick up a suspended game with Winnipeg on September 1st, leading 11-1 in the fourth inning, so they’ll likely have another win to pick up.

#9: Kansas City Monarchs

Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .509

Remaining Games: 3 vs. Lincoln, 3 @ Sioux Falls, 4 @ Winnipeg, 3 @ Lincoln, 3 vs. Sioux City, 4 vs. Winnipeg

This will be a fun finish for the Monarchs, with eight games against a Winnipeg team just half a game behind them for the West Division lead and the very real possibility of the division being decided in a head-to-head matchup in the final weekend. Outside of the two Goldeyes series, it’s a much more manageable slate, with six against Lincoln, and seven against the two Sioux’s. Keep an eye out, though, for that ten-game road trip with the Winnipeg series in the middle of it.

Third-Hardest: Winnipeg Goldeyes

Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .512

Remaining Games: 3 @ Sioux Falls, 3 @ Sioux City, 4 vs. Kansas City, 3 vs. Lake Country, 3 @ Fargo-Moorhead (plus suspension), 4 @ Kansas City

As mentioned in the Fargo-Moorhead blurb, the Goldeyes will probably be taking an extra loss on September 1 in a suspended game they currently trail 11-1. That won’t help amidst a stretch with the eight aforementioned games with Kansas City, plus a visit from Lake Country and a trip to the two Sioux’s and rival Fargo-Moorhead. Not helping matters: the Goldeyes are only 15-20 on the road (and 30-15 at home) and they play 13 of their final 19 (plus the suspended game) away from Canadian soil.

Second-Hardest: Sioux City Explorers

Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .532

Remaining Games: 3 vs. Fargo-Moorhead, 3 vs. Winnipeg, 3 @ Gary SouthShore, 4 vs. Kane County, 3 @ Kansas City, 4 @ Lake Country

The X’s get a midweek trip to Gary SouthShore…but that’s the only reprieve they get, with 17 of their last 20 games against teams in current playoff positioning. Not exactly what you want when trying to run down a playoff berth. More notable: Sioux City has no games left with the last playoff team, Sioux Falls and one series with Fargo-Moorhead is the only set left with a team they have a real chance of catching (for now). The home set with Kane County is against the second-best road team in the league (22-18), while the finish at Kansas City and Lake Country is absolutely brutal, as they’re two of the three top teams in the league both overall and at home.

Hardest: Lincoln Saltdogs

Opponents’ Winning Percentage: .554

Remaining Games: 3 @ Kansas City, 3 vs. Fargo-Moorhead, 4 @ Milwaukee, 3 vs. Kansas City, 3 vs. Milwaukee, 4 @ Sioux Falls

At midseason, I said Lincoln’s James Frisbie would be my manager of the year if Milwaukee didn’t have the best record in the league. I still believe that, but I might change my mind if the Saltdogs find their way to the postseason. Why? Well, look at their 20 remaining games: all 20 are against playoff teams, including 13 against the two division leaders. Absolutely brutal. There is one silver lining, though: if they somehow, someway get to the final weekend with a chance to play their way into the postseason, their final series is against a Sioux Falls squad currently occupying the final West Division playoff spot. Safe to say, if the Saltdogs snap their three-year playoff drought this year, they will have earned that final spot. It’s a testament that to their first-year skipper that they even are in a spot to be playing meaningful baseball this late.

—

Thanks for reading! Please give me a follow on Twitter/X at @AABaseballFan1 and Instagram at @aabaseballfan